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Government Sanctioned Non-State Actors In Nigeria Likely To Experience A Moderate Increase In Their Role Over 1_EG.jpgThe Next Five Years


Executive Summary:
Government sanctioned non-state actors (NSAs), particularly business NSAs, operating in Nigeria are likely to experience a moderate increase in their role in Moderate_Inc.jpgthe country over the next five years. This increased role is likely to come as a result of the government's efforts towards increased privatization, economic liberalization, and an improved business climate in the country. The presence of significant oil reserves in the country is all but certain to draw an increased number of business NSAs to the African country. However, organized protests and activism by rebel groups - particularly the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta - and communities affected by the oil exploration efforts in the country, are highly likely to remain obstacles to the expansion of roles for lawful NSA. Currently, Nigeria's social, political, and economic atmosphere allow for an insignificant role for unlawful NSAs (represented by its score of 1 on the Extra Governmental side of the Role Potential spectrum); however it is likely that the increased presence of business NSAs with favor to the government will bring about an increased role for lawful NSA in Nigeria.

Analytical Confidence: 7
Source Reliability: 9

Discussion ACH:



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Overall Scores

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Democracy Var.

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Doing Bus. Var.

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Corruption Var.

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Failed States Var.

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Geo Dis- NGOs

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Geo Dis- Bus.

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Geo Dis- Ter Grps.